The probability of "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours

By: rootdata|2026/04/21 03:50:46
0
Share
copy

According to market news, the probability of Polymarket "the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours. The event contract rules are as follows: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes the number of vessels arriving at the port in the Strait of Hormuz with a 7-day moving average ("vessels arriving") equal to or greater than 60 on any date during the period from market creation to May 31, 2026, then the market will be determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no".

The daily number of vessels arriving at the port includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered. It is reported that U.S. Vice President Pence will travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran on Tuesday. U.S. President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan.

Trump stated that they will negotiate, and if not, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides can reach a "fair agreement" and emphasized that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. He further justified military action against Iran by stating there was no choice and claimed that they would ultimately complete the finishing work.

You may also like

The impact of OUSD on Circle, Tether, and Paxos: not a single negative factor, but a more complex reshaping of competition

OUSD will not be the last new competitor; Circle needs to respond more actively in terms of products, distribution, and ecosystem collaboration.

A valuation of 8 billion dollars, doubling in 8 months! What makes the crypto-friendly bank Erebor Bank stand out?

Erebor is a high-profile experiment taking place at the intersection of banking, cryptocurrency, and industrial policy.

340 billion valuation: Li Yanhong's largest IPO, a seat in Kunlunxin's shares is hard to come by

As a core asset in Baidu's AI landscape, Kunlun Chip is expected to exceed Baidu's market value after going public, becoming an important bargaining chip in its turnaround battle.

Stablecoins are the "royalists" of the crypto world: Open USD brings the old currency system into play

The emergence of Open USD has shifted the competition for stablecoins from the market struggle of crypto startups to a battle for infrastructure involving traditional finance, payment networks, technology platforms, and public chain ecosystems.

Cape Verde 2-3 Argentina: The Underdog Team That Stunned the World in Defeat

Cape Verde's run ended in a 3-2 defeat to Argentina, but their journey — three unbeaten draws, one heroic goalkeeper, and a fight that pushed the defending champions to the brink — is the kind of story markets recognize too: small caps can rattle blue chips long before anyone expects it.

Semiconductor stocks plummet, yet Anthropic wants to create a 2nm chip

Abandoning TSMC and teaming up with Samsung. Anthropic launches a self-developed 2nm chip program, challenging Nvidia and starting a battle to break through computing power costs.

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more
iconiconiconiconiconiconicon
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com