Market Downturn: Why Is MKR Bucking the Trend with an Upsurge?
原文标题:The Bull Case for $MKR $SKY
原文作者:Taiki Maeda,HFAResearch CEO
原文编译:ChatGPT
编者按:作者认为,$MKR(现为$SKY)在 2025 年第一季度/第二季度有望表现优异,主要得益于每月 3000 万美元的回购计划、DAI/USDS 供应量接近历史高点、以及即将启动的 SPK farming 带来的增长动力。尽管重新品牌未获市场青睐,但其基本面强劲,加上美国稳定币法案的潜在利好,未来几个月前景积极。
以下为原文内容(为便于阅读理解,原内容有所整编):
在这篇文章中,我将阐述为何$MKR 将在 2025 年第一季度/第二季度的风险调整后表现超过大多数加密资产。
MKR 看涨理由如下:
· 每月 3000 万美元的回购计划已启动
· 尽管情绪低迷,DAI/USDS 供应量接近历史最高点
· SPK farming 即将开始(资金印钞机)
注:MKR 已重新品牌为$SKY,因此它们实际上是同一代币。DAI 也重新品牌为 USDS。
回购回来了
没错,回购回来了。这次以加速的速度进行。

在 2 月 24 日执行的提案后,额外的 5500 万美元 USDS 已被 earmarked 用于回购。回购将按每月 3000 万美元的速度进行,或大约每天 100 万美元。

实际上,这个回购可能会更多,因为协议本身是盈利的(每年净收入 1.25 亿美元,即每月 1042 万美元),如下面所示。

考虑到$MKR 当前价格为 1600 美元,3000 万美元的买压将意味着协议将回购约 1.9% 的总供应量。为了给大家一些对比,@MicroStrategy 在过去 4.5 年内购买了比特币供应量的 2%。我认为这个买压及其速度尚未被市场定价。
我们将 2024 年 MKR 表现不佳的主要原因归结于重新品牌,这一举措并未受到市场的欢迎。然而,USDS 实际上已经在增长,最低时曾跌至 45 亿美元。「情绪低迷,基本面向上」为一枚轻仓的币提供了很好的成长叙事机会(有些人可能会称之为被讨厌的反弹)。

SPK 代币上线
Spark,一个拥有 30 亿美元 TVL 的借贷市场及资产管理平台,从 MakerDAO 分拆出来。本文暗示,SPK farming 和 TGE 将在不久后进行,这将为回购火力提供更多助力。

SPK 将是一个「公平发售/农场」代币,你只能通过质押 USDS 或 SKY 来进行 farming(查看经济学细节)。这意味着质押 USDS/SKY 来 farming 的需求可能会增加,从而提高稳定币供应量、收入和利润等指标。
50% 的$SPK 激励将在前两年内分发。如果我们假设其完全稀释估值(FDV)为 10 亿美元,那么有 5 亿美元的价值将分配给 SKY/USDS 质押者,这将为本地代币提供质押收益,并补贴 USDS 的增长,进而推动未来更多的回购。
其他的 SubDAOs/Stars(如 Solana Star、RWA Star 等)也将陆续上线,这将进一步推动未来的回购。
稳定币法案
对于那些没有关注美国监管动态的朋友们,稳定币法案《美国稳定币指导与国家创新建立法案》(GENIUS)旨在为美国支付稳定币的发行和监管创建一个联邦框架。

目前尚不清楚这个法案将惠及哪些玩家(除了 Circle),但如果我们看到 GENIUS 法案形成更强的叙事并引发更多头条新闻,我们认为 MKR 可能会稳步成为稳定币相关项目中的流动性交易者之一,从而为这一叙事提供敞口。虽然这比其他催化剂要弱,但它代表了市场参与者可能愿意增加 MKR 仓位的另一个理由;不难看出,这枚币的需求端可能正在逐渐积累,利好看涨方。
结论
Sky 的重新品牌虽有些失败,但这一点可能已经反映在价格中(从 2024 年 4 月到 2025 年 2 月的下行趋势)。展望未来,基于本文所阐述的理由,我们有充分的理由相信接下来的几个月对 MKR 来说会是积极的。最后,尽管样本量较小,但我们经常看到 MKR 在不确定或震荡的市场环境中表现良好,而这种市场前景在可预见的未来最为可能。
「原文链接」
You may also like

Japan’s Three Megabanks Plan Joint Stablecoin Issuance in Fiscal 2026
MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho reportedly plan to jointly issue fiat-pegged stablecoins in fiscal 2026, signaling Japan’s growing push into bank-led digital payment infrastructure.

Humanity Discloses H Token Dual-Chain Attack Details, With Losses on Ethereum and BSC Exceeding $36 Million
Humanity said the H token attack across Ethereum and BSC caused more than $36 million in losses after leaked ProxyAdmin keys enabled malicious contract upgrades and token minting.

White House Discusses CLARITY Act With Law Enforcement Ahead of Senate Vote
The White House discussed the CLARITY Act with law enforcement ahead of a Senate vote, focusing on illicit finance risks and developer protections.

$75 billion in foreign capital has fled, and South Korean retail investors have absorbed it all using leverage

Bitcoin Trading Guide 2026: Strategies for Experienced Traders

What Is XAUT and PAXG? Why Tokenized Gold Is Booming in 2026

Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."

Will the SpaceX IPO Hurt Bitcoin? Here's What Traders Are Watching

Foreign selling in the South Korean stock market accelerates, with cumulative net sales reportedly reaching $75 billion this year
On June 9, The Kobeissi Letter, citing Goldman Sachs data, reported that global investors are selling South Korean stocks at an unusually rapid pace. In the latest trading session, foreign investors sold about $801 million worth of Kospi constituent stocks again; total foreign outflows last week reached about $10 billion, and the market has been in net foreign selling on nearly every trading day over the past month. According to the data cited in the report, foreign investors have sold about $75 billion worth of South Korean stocks so far this year. Meanwhile, South Korean retail and institutional investors together recorded roughly $69 billion in net buying over the same period, suggesting that the market’s main buying support has come from domestic capital rather than returning overseas funds. The information currently disclosed still mainly comes from The Kobeissi Letter’s retelling and Goldman Sachs data summaries, while public details on the statistical period and the specific definition of “selling” remain relatively limited.

Fortune Warns of Strategy’s Financing Structure Risks as Bitcoin Premium Narrows
Fortune warned that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model faces growing financing risks as MSTR’s net asset premium narrows and preferred stock dividend pressure increases.

Ferrari Challenge Le Mans: Carl Moon to Dominate in WEEX Livery

Sahara AI Responds to SAHARA’s Sharp Drop: No Contract or Product Security Issues Found, Internal Investigation Underway
Sahara AI responded to SAHARA’s 60% price drop, saying no token contract or product security issues have been found and an internal investigation is underway.

WEEX Deposit/Withdrawal Dynamic Island: Your Asset Status, Always in Sight

Scaling Crypto Derivatives: The Digital Asset Infrastructure Behind High-Volume Trading
In the fast-moving digital asset ecosystem, derivatives platforms face an extreme architectural test. High-leverage futures markets demand more than just standard security—they require absolute operational precision, zero-latency matching engines, and ironclad structural scalability, all while navigating intense market volatility.
As global platforms scale to meet these demands, the industry is shifting away from rigid, monolithic setups toward a more agile, "decoupled" infrastructure philosophy.
The Blueprint for High-Volume Copy TradingFor elite global exchanges like WEEX (founded in 2018), this architectural choice becomes critical when scaling high-volume retail features like social copy trading. When thousands of users automatically mirror the real-time strategies of elite traders simultaneously, it triggers sudden, monumental spikes in concurrent transactional volume.
To prevent execution latency or settlement bottlenecks during these peak volatility events, a platform's primary engine must remain entirely dedicated to risk management, copy-trade synchronization, and order matching.
The Architectural Rule: New-generation platforms must separate front-end user execution engines from heavy backend infrastructural overhead to eliminate operational friction.
By separating these layers, platforms can maintain complete sovereignty over their trading environments and user experiences while strategically aligning with institutional-grade infrastructure ecosystems. This strategic framework allows modern exchanges to leverage advanced Digital Asset Custody infrastructure such as Cobo’s behind the scenes, ensuring that backend wallet management scales elastically alongside trading spikes.
Capitalizing on Market Momentum and 400× LeverageIn a derivatives arena where platforms offer up to 400× leverage on perpetual contracts, capital efficiency and market agility are core business metrics. To capture market momentum, an exchange needs the ability to rapidly expand its asset offerings, supporting everything from legacy crypto assets to sudden, trending altcoins across a massive library of trading pairs.
Adopting a flexible, scalable Wallet-as-a-Service (WaaS) solution such as Cobo’s could completely rewrite the development timeline for high-growth exchanges. Instead of spending months of engineering capital building out custom backend wallet architectures for every new blockchain network, platforms can deploy localized infrastructure in days.
This agility allows platforms to instantly scale their listings to over a thousand trading pairs without compromising security or delaying time-to-market. It mirrors the exact operational advantages seen during high-velocity market events, similar to how advanced wallet infrastructure empowers platforms during sudden asset surges; allowing exchanges to pass that speed and liquidity directly to their global user base.
A Mature Foundation for GrowthThe synergy between trusted infrastructure ecosystems and global trading platforms represents the natural evolution of a maturing crypto market. As WEEX continues to scale its global spot and derivatives offerings for over 6 million users, adopting robust backend paradigms proves that platforms no longer have to compromise between cutting-edge trading velocity and uncompromised structural security.

Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market

Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle

Get Paid to Onboard? Try WEEX’s New Homepage with Rewards for Registration, Deposit & Trade

WEEX Custom Layout: Build Your Perfect Trading Workspace in Seconds
Japan’s Three Megabanks Plan Joint Stablecoin Issuance in Fiscal 2026
MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho reportedly plan to jointly issue fiat-pegged stablecoins in fiscal 2026, signaling Japan’s growing push into bank-led digital payment infrastructure.
Humanity Discloses H Token Dual-Chain Attack Details, With Losses on Ethereum and BSC Exceeding $36 Million
Humanity said the H token attack across Ethereum and BSC caused more than $36 million in losses after leaked ProxyAdmin keys enabled malicious contract upgrades and token minting.
White House Discusses CLARITY Act With Law Enforcement Ahead of Senate Vote
The White House discussed the CLARITY Act with law enforcement ahead of a Senate vote, focusing on illicit finance risks and developer protections.


