Crypto Market Faces "Black Monday": Comprehensive Summary of Market Insights, Data, and Strategies
三月加密市场历经三连跌,特朗普雷声大雨点小的加密峰会加剧了失望情绪,周末有关美国经济面临「转型期」的表态更是削弱了投资者对市场暴跌背景下政策转向的信心,经济担忧加剧。
今天的美股「黑色星期一」带崩加密市场,比特币最低触及 76,600 美元,创近 4 个月以来的新低,基本回到去年特朗普胜选时的水平。ETH、SOL 等在内的主流山寨币同样遭到血洗,以太坊跌破 1800 美元,创下自 2023 年 10 月以来最低。据 Alternative 数据,加密货币恐慌与贪婪指数为 24(昨日为 20),市场情绪仍处于「极度恐慌」状态。
观点汇总
一片哀嚎声中,市场最关心的莫过于什么时候能筑底?BitMEX 联合创始人Arthur Hayes发文表示,现阶段市场需要耐心,认为比特币可能会在 70,000 美元附近筑底,从 110,000 美元的历史高点回调 36%。他预测市场需要美股自由落体式暴跌,导致传统金融大玩家破产,等美联储及各国央行开始放水救市的时候,就是 all in 的好时机。对于风险厌恶型选手,可以等到放水后再加仓,以避免在漫长的盘整期和潜在的浮亏中煎熬。
市场的悲观情绪并未因此缓解。股市的悲观情绪叠加美国经济衰退的担忧,有社区成员认为在这样的环境中,比特币的最大潜在跌幅约为 50,000 美元。对此,CZ 表示:「宏观经济指标对比特币价格的影响仅适用于短期。」言外之意,大概还是要坚持长期主义,坚持 HODL。

那市场到底什么时候能好起来?ARK Invest 创始人Cathie Wood 对当前市场有着不同的解读。她表示当前市场正在消化滚动式衰退的最后阶段,这将给予特朗普政府和美联储比投资者预期更多的政策调整空间,从而可能在今年下半年推动美国经济进入「通缩式繁荣」。Cathie Wood 认为,美联储的货币政策将更加灵活,市场或低估了这一潜在的经济反弹动力。
比特币「数字黄金」的避险属性还在吗?未来市场或许将迎来好转,但当前市场不确定性依然存在。YouHodler 市场主管 Ruslan Lienkha 指出,去年比特币的盘整阶段曾持续数月(甚至长达半年),然后才迎来下一波上涨。「当前的盘整期可能会演变为中期熊市。」「尽管比特币未来有可能演变为避险资产,但目前投资者仍将其视为高风险资产,往往比传统金融市场对市场情绪变化反应更为剧烈。」
数据一览
数据显示本次跌幅相当惨烈。美股加密货币股票全线跌幅持续扩大,全线跌超 10%,Coinbase(COIN) 跌 12.04%;Strategy(MSTR) 跌 13.56%,较峰值缩水近一半,彭博社称原因是投资者对经济逆风感到担忧,并撤回此前因唐纳德·特朗普当选而受益的加密货币相关押注。Strategy 的股价周一下跌 17%,至 239.27 美元。自去年 11 月创下 473.83 美元的历史最高收盘价以来,该股已累计下跌 49.5%。
据 The Kobeissi Letter 披露,自 2024 年 12 月 16 日创下历史新高以来,加密货币市场已蒸发 1.3 万亿美元市值,跌幅达 33%,相当于连续 84 天每日平均损失 155 亿美元。The Kobeissi Letter 指出,这标志着加密货币历史上最大的三个月市值回调,目前加密市场总值已降至 2024 年 11 月 6 日以来的最低水平。

总历史情况来看,这次的清算强度堪比 LUNA 崩盘。据 Bravos Research 分析,当前加密货币市场正经历自 2022 年 5 月 LUNA 崩盘以来最大规模的山寨币清算。市场已发生约 100 亿美元的清算,规模远超 FTX 崩溃后的情况。数据显示,比特币主导地位持续上升,表明短期内并无明显的山寨币季节信号。分析认为,零售投资者热情尚未完全恢复,真正的山寨币季节可能仍在前方。

衍生品数据方面,Coinglass 数据显示,过去 24 小时全网爆仓 9.55 亿美元,其中绝大部分为多单爆仓,数额达 7.44 亿美元。从币种来看,其中 BTC 爆仓 3.18 亿美元,ETH 爆仓 2.52 亿美元。

巨鲸在做什么操作?
过去 24 小时内,加密货币市场出现了多起巨鲸杠杆多头仓位被清算或濒临清算的事件。据 BlockBeats 报道,某鲸鱼的6370 枚 rETH和1500 枚 weETH杠杆多头仓位已被清算。此外,Maker 上另一笔60,810 枚 ETH的借贷巨鲸仓位也面临清算风险,而另一笔65,675 枚 ETH的借贷仓位健康度已降至 1.02,濒临清算。
为了避免清算,一些巨鲸选择抛售或减仓。某鲸鱼为避免清算,割肉25,800 枚 ETH,亏损超过 3200 万美元。同时,也有巨鲸通过补充 2000 枚 ETH或减仓 2882 ETH后还款,以提升仓位健康系数或降低清算价格。此外,某巨鲸向 Maker 存入30,098 枚 ETH以降低清算价格。
另一方面,部分巨鲸选择止盈。例如,某鲸鱼向 Binance 转入3000 枚 ETH,而另一以太坊 ICO 远古巨鲸结束休眠,将7000 枚 ETH转入 Kraken。近 24 小时内,共有 4 位鲸鱼向 CEX 存入了47,756 枚 ETH。
尽管市场波动剧烈,部分巨鲸仍在寻找抄底机会。某鲸鱼在 10 小时前以 2014 美元的均价买入了15,292 枚 ETH,另一巨鲸则花费3079 万枚 DAI以相同均价买入 ETH。
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